Tool 6: Case Study or Test activity – Wind Shear Case in Israel

Note: This case study is provided by the Israel Meteorological Service as an example of using a test or case study to evaluate certain performance criteria. It is an example of best practice with the hope that it may be emulated in other locations for important but rare events. In Israel, this phenomenon occurs a few times per year. Demonstrating this competence would not be practical using direct observation. Successful completion of the case study would satisfy several performance criteria. As with many competencies, there is no guarantee that success on the test or case study would transfer to a real-time situation. Should deficiencies be noted later, corrective action would be required and should be described within the quality management system of the specific organization. Human nature is such that, even for perfectly demonstrated competence, in a real situation, there is no absolute certainty that the individual will demonstrate the same competence on a different day. There is a strong probability of continued competence but no guarantee. For this reason, as part of a quality management system, ongoing competency demonstration is required.

Satisfies the following performance criteria

1.3 need for TAF amendment

2.1b forecasting wind and wind shear

3.1c forecasting severe wind and wind shear

Simulation-Type Exam Question:

Attached are observations & charts which were available to the Ben-Gurion Airport forecaster at the beginning of his evening shift on the 6th of November 2009. Study the data and answer the following questions (please do not hesitate to share your doubts or provide possible weather scenarios):

1) The latest LLBG TAF was:

TAF LLBG 061650Z 0618/0718 04007KT CAVOK BECMG 0618/0620 13005KT TEMPO 0703/0710 10010G20KT BECMG 0710/0712 04013KT=

a. Should it be amended? Explain.

b. If you think it has to be amended, write an amendment (suppose that current time is 20Z).

2) Do you think that significant aviation weather may evolve over night at LLBG? Explain.

3) If you think that there is a need to issue airdrome warning, write the warning you would have sent (suppose that current time is 20Z).

A typical set of meteorological information accompanies this case study including

• latest 500hpa analyses
• 500 hpa model output
• latest surface analyses
• regional model wind predictions for 900hpa, 925hpa, 950hpa and 1000hpa
• surface observations:
• upper air temperature and wind profiles:
• forecast wind and temperature profiles
• latest METAR reports

The full case study, with accompanying information, can be downloaded from (insert link here).

A similar case study model could also be developed for other infrequent or seasonal phenomena such as

• 2.1d – Forecasting Cloud type, ceiling
• 2.1e - Forecasting precipitation
• 2.1f - Forecasting reduced visibility, onset and duration
• 2.1g - Forecasting obstructions to vision
• 2.1h - Forecasting thunderstorms
• 2.1i - Forecasting turbulence
• 2.1j - Forecasting icing
• 2.1k - Forecasting wake vortex formation, movement and dissipation
• 3.1a - Warnings for severe thunderstorms
• 3.1b - Warnings of severe turbulence
• 3.1c - Warnings for severe winds, wind shear, variability and gusts
• 3.1d - Warnings for severe icing
• 3.1e - Forecasting hazardous phenomena affecting aerodromes
• 3.1f – Forecasting sand and dust storms
• 3.1g – Forecasting volcanic ash
• 3.1h – Forecasting tropical cyclones