Tool 3 – Direct observation of AMF daily forecast activities including production of TAFs

Satisfies competency criteria

1.1a analysis

1.1b diagnosis

1.2 Monitor weather conditions

1.3 apply amendment criteria

2.1 forecast routines

2.1a forecasting temperature and humidity

2.1b forecasting wind

2.1c forecasting pressure

2.2a forecasts issued on time

2.2b forecasts have correct format

2.2c forecast within amendment criteria

2.3a monitoring forecast for adjacent regions

2.3b liaison with adjacent regions

3.2a forecasts/warnings issued on time¹

3.3a monitor adjacent forecasts or warnings¹

3.3b liaise with adjacent regions¹

4.2 impact of unrepresentative or erroneous observations

4.4 monitor operational systems

5.1 ensure dissemination

5.2 communication

The AMF is shadowed during one or more operational shifts to observe the production of TAFs and other forecasts. This activity is embedded within an effective analysis and diagnosis process (competencies 1.1a, 1.1b)

in addition, if present during assessment period

2.1d forecasting cloud

2.1e forecasting precipitation

2.1f forecasting reduced visibility

2.1g forecasting obstruction to vision

2.1h forecasting thunderstorms

1. in most cases, it will not be possible to directly observe the timeliness of warnings or related monitoring/liaison with adjacent regions. These events are relatively rare and may not occur during the period of direct observation. It will be necessary to observe the timeliness of other regular forecasts and the forecaster’s time management. If the forecaster clearly meets or exceeds timeliness requirements for regular forecasts (2.2a), it can be assumed that the forecaster also meets performance criterion 3.2a. A similar logic applies to monitoring of adjacent forecasts (2.3a and 3.3a) and liaison with adjacent regions (2.3b and 3.3b).

Assessor comments:

Include subjective comments on difficulty of forecast situation. For a complex meteorological situation assessment might differ from a simple situation. For example, during a shift without significant weather, experiential questions might be posed in order to assess other criteria such as other aspects of 2.1, QMS 4.1, warnings or hazardous weather (3.1, 3.2, 3.3).

1.2 Monitor weather conditions	-routinely retrieves and reviews scheduled bulletins (METAR, synoptic, upper air, etc.)	-maintains a watch for the arrival of unscheduled data (SPECI, pirep, etc.)	-routinely retrieves and reviews remote sensed data (satellite, radar, lightning, etc.)	-maintains a watch for non standard data (seismological, hydrology, SST, snow/ice cover, etc.)	-timely retrieval and review
1.3 apply amendment criteria	-noting weather nearing an amendment threshold	-proactively amending the forecast when beneficial	-responding in a timely manner when amendment criteria are reached	-knowledge of amendment criteria and beneficial amendment situations
2.1 forecast routines	-using techniques appropriate for forecast range	-correctly using subjective and NWP statistical guidance	-commences with predicting the motion and evolution of major features	-focusing on areas of most significant weather first
2.1b forecasting wind	-uses appropriate techniques	-accurately forecasts wind speed	-accurately forecasts wind direction	-accurately forecasts gustiness and variability	-accurately forecasts wind shear
2.2a forecasts issued on time	different types of forecasts are issued on time	preparation time is effectively balanced	all factors are considered in preparing forecasts
2.2b forecasts have correct format	correctly issue forecasts according to ICAO/WMO standards and local rules.	format or coding errors are noted in reviewing forecasts	-correctly uses approved ICAO/WMO abbreviations
2.2c forecast within amendment criteria	-knowledge of amendment criteria	-timely response at appropriate threshold values	-consistent with regulations (local/international)	-communicates amendments to designated users
2.3a monitoring forecast for adjacent regions	locates bulletins or other forecasts for neighbouring regions	diagnoses conditions along boundaries
2.3b liaison with adjacent regions	contacts colleagues in neighbouring regions	shares ideas and listens to opinions of others	mutual goal of seamless forecasts
4.2 impact of unrepresentative/erroneous obs	-errors recognized and discounted	-suspect observations compared to surroundings	compliance/noncompliance with conceptual models considered	-corrected information obtained	-communicated findings
4.4 monitor operational systems	aware of technical systems	aware of contingency plans	takes appropriate action
5.1 ensure dissemination	follows dissemination procedures	verifies dissemination of products to end users	products are received at useful time
5.2 communication	-appropriate type of briefing for user	-timely, concise delivery	-consistent with forecast	-relevant information	-solicit feedback