Forecaster Performance Criterion 2.1h

Forecasting thunderstorms

Performance Criterion Description:

The forecaster must apply meteorological knowledge and skill in forecasting thunderstorms 

Scenario:       

The forecaster is asked to assess convective potential within the area of responsibility then forecast thunderstorms, isolated CB or no convection accordingly. 

Evidence:

The forecaster must apply the appropriate forecasting techniques utilizing

conceptual models

numerical and statistical guidance

interpret remote sensing data

extrapolation

thermodynamic reasoning (including convective indices)

other

in order to

• complete a thorough convective assessment
• identify convective and non convective areas
• predict development and motion of cells or systems
• predict severity of convection and associated precipitation
• determine risk of microbursts, windshear or other hazards relating to convection